Deformation stability of the surrounding rock is essential to ensure the safety of tunnel construction. Due to the multitude of factors affecting the deformation of the surrounding rock, the mechanical properties of the surrounding rock and the structural forces of the lining have significant randomness and uncertainty, and the functional function of the deformation stability for tunnel surrounding rock presents significantly nonlinear or implicit characteristics. In this paper, the influence of geotechnical parameters on the surrounding rock deformation of shield tunnel was addressed, and a homogeneous test scheme was designed to carry out interaction tests on each influencing factor to study the settlement of the tunnel vault under the interaction of different level values. Considering the correlation between the parameter variables, the response surface functions between the maximum value of vault settlement and different parameter variables were fitted using partial least squares to obtain the explicit functional functions of tunnel envelope deformation stability. To verify the feasibility of this paper, the reliability index and failure probability of tunnel envelope deformation stability were calculated by Monte Carlo simulation based on a shield tunnel project in a typical clay stratum in Shanghai area, and the sensitivity of different variation levels of parameters on the reliability was analyzed. The results show that the method is simple and feasible, and solves the difficulty of solving the implicit functional function in the reliability analysis process, and the calculation accuracy can meet the engineering requirements and has certain practicality.

Lin Shangyue. Reliability Analysis of Shield Tunnel Deformation Stability Based on Uniform Design-Response Surface Method. International Journal of New Developments in Engineering and Society (2025), Vol. 9, Issue 2: 84-90. https://doi.org/10.25236/IJNDES.2025.090214.

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