This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) in premature infants based on prenatal and perinatal indicators. A retrospective study was conducted. Fifty premature infants diagnosed with PDA admitted to our hospital between September 2022 and September 2025 were enrolled as the PDA group, and 50 premature infants without PDA admitted during the same period were included as the control group. Prenatal, perinatal and clinical data were compared between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent influencing factors, based on which the risk prediction model was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to validate the model's predictive performance. Univariate analysis showed that compared with the control group, the PDA group had significantly higher proportions of maternal gestational hypertension and prenatal infection, as well as a lower proportion of complete antenatal glucocorticoid treatment (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the following factors were independent predictors of PDA in premature infants (all P<0.05): lower gestational age at birth (OR=0.902, 95%CI: 0.842-0.966), lower birth weight (OR=0.897, 95%CI: 0.818-0.983), maternal gestational hypertension (OR=2.726, 95%CI: 1.192-6.235), incomplete antenatal glucocorticoid course before delivery (OR=2.710, 95%CI: 1.199-6.125), and prenatal infection (OR=2.751, 95%CI: 1.301-5.817). Model validation showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model was 0.885 (95% CI: 0.812-0.957), indicating good discriminative ability. In conclusion, lower gestational age, low birth weight, maternal gestational hypertension, incomplete antenatal glucocorticoid treatment before delivery, and prenatal infection are independent risk factors for PDA in premature infants. The predictive model constructed based on these factors has good efficacy for early risk identification of PDA.

Liu Caixia. Construction of a Predictive Model for Influencing Factors of Patent Ductus Arteriosus in Premature Infants Based on Prenatal Indicators. International Journal of Frontiers in Medicine (2026), Vol. 8, Issue 1: 87-91. https://doi.org/10.25236/IJFM.2026.080111.

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