In recent years, the live hog futures market has exhibited strong volatility due to multiple factors. However, existing research has paid little attention to price interval estimation and market state transition characteristics, making it difficult to provide effective guidance for market participants. As a direct determinant of pork prices, the futures price of live hogs is of significant economic importance to market participants. This paper analyzes key indicators such as the pig-grain ratio and the inventory of breeding sows based on macro data related to live hogs from 2021 to 2024. The results show that the production capacity of live hogs has been well controlled, the advantage of imported pork has faded, the price of piglets has stabilized and increased, and the industry is approaching a supply-demand balance. Using the Hidden Markov Model(HMM) to analyze daily trading data of live hog futures, this paper sets the number of hidden states to 3, corresponding to the states of “windfall profit,” “normal profit,” and “thin profit.” It calculates the average pig-grain ratio and price under different states. The study ultimately estimates that the futures price interval for a supply-demand balance in the live hog market is 17 to 21.75 yuan, corresponding to a pig-grain ratio interval of 5.82 to 7.77. The results indicate that periods of substantial profit in the live hog industry are closely related to seasonal increases in market demand, supply chain fluctuations, policy adjustments, and international market dynamics. 

Yiyang Sun, Yixiao Gong, Yu Pan, Changjun Yu. Price Interval Estimation and Empirical Analysis of the Hog Futures Market Based on the Hidden Markov Model. International Journal of New Developments in Engineering and Society (2025), Vol. 9, Issue 2: 21-26. https://doi.org/10.25236/IJNDES.2025.090204.

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