In order to address the inadequacy of conventional probabilistic tidal current calculation methods in dealing with the impact of wind power output on line impedance, this paper proposes a coupled electricity-heat-gas probabilistic tidal current calculation model considering the wind power output-temperature time series correlation, firstly. The relationship between environmental factors and line temperature is established by introducing the heat balance equation, and an attention convolution network is used to capture the complex correlation between wind speed and air temperature, so as to realize the dynamic correction of system parameters. Secondly, the changes in the line impedance correction factor caused by wind power output in different scenarios are analyzed, and the operating parameters of the power system are adjusted accordingly. Finally, based on the IEEE-30 node system for testing and validation, the simulation results show that the error of the probabilistic tidal current calculation results is significantly reduced after considering the time-sequence correlation of wind power output. Specifically, the average absolute errors of line active loss, flow power, and voltage magnitude decrease by 61.0%, 33.3%, and 40.0%, respectively, while the root-mean-square errors decrease by 58.3%, 35.4%, and 20.0%, respectively. It is proved that the probabilistic tidal current model proposed in this paper, which takes into account the time-sequence of wind temperature, is closer to the actual operation situation, and can further improve the stability and economy of the power system operation.

Jinqian Xu, Guanglan Qiu, Zekai Zhu. Coupled Probabilistic Tidal Current Calculation of Electricity-Heat-Gas Taking into Account the Time-Series Correlation of Wind Power Output-Temperature. International Journal of Frontiers in Engineering Technology(2025), Vol. 7, Issue 2: 125-135. https://doi.org/10.25236/IJFET.2025.070216.

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